DJIA Forcast_Harmonic Elliot Wave Update_1_13_13

The following is a possible alternative count to the Harmonic Elliot-wave count I posted on January 6th. Here the target top of Intermediate [Red] degree ends not around 14,400 but with a very specific target zone, between 14,100 and 14,141. There are significant correlations in the Fibonacci resistance points for this prediction, and this alternative represents a 8 point reduction in target range from the count I published on 1/6/13. It is also about 300 points lower in terms of its termination point.

However, there is a major difference in that this count is a motive, not a corrective count. In other words, the bear market correction following this wave intermediate wave sequence would retrace, at most to 6,400. This would represent a strong, though not uncommon, wave 2 retracement of wave 1. This would be the extreme of its downward potential however, and would set the stage for a very powerful bull market 3 wave to follow.

This prediction will be supported, though not made definitive, by termination of the current intermediate wave in the DJIA between 14,100 and 14,141. If the DJIA pushes up toward 14,400, it is my belief that it is a double three and part of an extended sideways correction on the cycle level (forcasts for this fractal degree coming soon). Please see the  depiction of the Intermediate degree system I am describing in Figure [1]

If this alternative count is accurate, it seems likely that the debt ceiling debate will serve as a catalyst for a bear market wave 2 correction.

Figure [1]