I have added to my analysis a linear regression line (moving downward and to the right in red) as well as the trends in the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I think these provide a reasonable means of gauging the wave count and help provide a rough channel.
Because the current sideways pattern is a triangular patter, I think that wave 2 (black) will complete upon the upward formation of the 7th wave of the sideways triangle. It is likely that this correction will not last past the beginning of August and my macro-assessment is for a major upcoming bear market.
If the market drops below the trend lines I have outlined in any significant way, it is likely that the downward pressure will prevail before early August and we would quickly move into wave 3 (black). However, my official prediction is that this market will finish out its sideways movement before coming down in August.
-W
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