Update to DJIA Prediction on 5_17_2012

The current wave form has placed the bottom of the [3] wave at $12,336. I believe that the upwards movement which followed in the past few days began with a 5-wave structure comprising of wave [a] of [4]. The following downturn in [b] back to the start of wave [a] and will I believe yield a truncated [c] wave, again signaling a very strong underlying negative force in the markets. I am estimating the likelihood that the correction will bounce off of the upper channel to be about 55%, though this is conservative. I think it is respectively unlikely that wave [c] will retrace wave [a] to 1.618% and have thus marked it with a rough 10% likelihood. The last option which is likely in my opinion is that the [c] wave meets with the top of wave [a] before falling. I placed that likelihood roughly around 40%.

Thus, given the strong negative motion in the market thus far, I think it is more likely that wave [c] will bounce from the upper trend channel and push the DJIA down to 12,088 in completion of  [5](1), before the entire [ wave ] retraces. I do not think that the (single degree larger) upward correction will reach .618 percent of the length of (1). Again, this presumption is based upon the strong overall negative force inherent within the market / economy at this time.

All the best,

-W