This site was asked to Partner with EWI to provide studies and media regarding both Elliot Waves and Socionomics. I am thrilled to have access to their material and will be sharing selected pieces with you from this point forward. This is truly a fantastic resource for anyone interested in getting to the bottom of not only financial markets but history and current events as well.
The first piece is a new report, by Prechter himself, regarding the current presidential race.
Enjoy!
Want to Know Who’s Going to Be President?
Ask the Stock Market
By Robert Folsom | February 13, 2012
What’s the biggest influence on the outcome of presidential elections?
Many observers would identify the role of campaign spending by super
PACs, a candidate’s debate performance, and, of course, the health
of the economy (“stupid”).
Yet if you want an answer backed by a large body of evidence, you’ll
find one in the recently-published, landmark research paper by Robert
Prechter, Deepak Goel, Wayne Parker and Matthew Lampert, titled “Social
Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Election.”
A lot of time, data analysis, and copious statistical evidence led
them to this straightforward result:
Ask the Stock Market
By Robert Folsom | February 13, 2012
What’s the biggest influence on the outcome of presidential elections?
Many observers would identify the role of campaign spending by super
PACs, a candidate’s debate performance, and, of course, the health
of the economy (“stupid”).
Yet if you want an answer backed by a large body of evidence, you’ll
find one in the recently-published, landmark research paper by Robert
Prechter, Deepak Goel, Wayne Parker and Matthew Lampert, titled “Social
Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Election.”
A lot of time, data analysis, and copious statistical evidence led
them to this straightforward result:
“Social mood as reflected by the stock
market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic
variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment…”
In other words: If you want a good predictor for the result of an
incumbent president’s re-election, look to the stock market.
Large amounts of earlier research have focused on stock performance
after a presidential election. But very few scholars have
reversed that order, to investigate a possible link between elections
and preceding stock market performance. So reverse that order
is what the authors did. What’s more, they’re the only ones to study
the issue from a socionomic perspective — the premise that waves of
social mood simultaneously drive the valuations of stocks and
sitting presidents.
The group published their research on January 17, and it’s already
getting attention. A Washington Post columnist read the paper
and got its practical usefulness, by noting that Obama should benefit
from a stock market that’s been mostly higher since 2008, while a
Republican challenger “should hope the Dow crashes.”
You can read the research paper yourself by clicking
here. At the top of the next page, click the link that
reads, “One-Click Download”.
market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic
variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment…”
In other words: If you want a good predictor for the result of an
incumbent president’s re-election, look to the stock market.
Large amounts of earlier research have focused on stock performance
after a presidential election. But very few scholars have
reversed that order, to investigate a possible link between elections
and preceding stock market performance. So reverse that order
is what the authors did. What’s more, they’re the only ones to study
the issue from a socionomic perspective — the premise that waves of
social mood simultaneously drive the valuations of stocks and
sitting presidents.
The group published their research on January 17, and it’s already
getting attention. A Washington Post columnist read the paper
and got its practical usefulness, by noting that Obama should benefit
from a stock market that’s been mostly higher since 2008, while a
Republican challenger “should hope the Dow crashes.”
You can read the research paper yourself by clicking
here. At the top of the next page, click the link that
reads, “One-Click Download”.
- W
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