Who will be Next President? : A Socionomic Outlook by Robert Prechter_2_16_12

As a strict rule, my analysis is always substantially based on my own assessments of wave position and of socionomic indicators. However, as was shown with my last wave count, rules are made to be broken and I am very pleased to announce this sites partnership with Elliot Wave International ["EWI"]. Robert Prechter, also founder of EWI, has developed and shared his theory of socionomics, as well as its link to Elliot Waves, for many years and was the catalyst for my specific undertaking of the subject.

This site was asked to Partner with EWI to provide studies and media regarding both Elliot Waves and Socionomics. I am thrilled to have access to their material and will be sharing selected pieces with you from this point forward. This is truly a fantastic resource for anyone interested in getting to the bottom of not only financial markets but history and current events as well.

The first piece is a new report, by Prechter himself, regarding the current presidential race.

Enjoy!

Want to Know Who’s Going to Be President?
Ask the Stock Market

By Robert Folsom | February 13, 2012



What’s the biggest influence on the outcome of presidential elections?



Many observers would identify the role of campaign spending by super
PACs, a candidate’s debate performance, and, of course, the health
of the economy (“stupid”).



Yet if you want an answer backed by a large body of evidence, you’ll
find one in the recently-published, landmark research paper by Robert
Prechter, Deepak Goel, Wayne Parker and Matthew Lampert, titled “Social
Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Election.”



A lot of time, data analysis, and copious statistical evidence led
them to this straightforward result:

“Social mood as reflected by the stock
market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic
variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment…”



In other words: If you want a good predictor for the result of an
incumbent president’s re-election, look to the stock market.



Large amounts of earlier research have focused on stock performance
after a presidential election. But very few scholars have
reversed that order, to investigate a possible link between elections
and preceding stock market performance. So reverse that order
is what the authors did. What’s more, they’re the only ones to study
the issue from a socionomic perspective — the premise that waves of
social mood simultaneously drive the valuations of stocks and
sitting presidents.



The group published their research on January 17, and it’s already
getting attention. A Washington Post columnist read the paper
and got its practical usefulness, by noting that Obama should benefit
from a stock market that’s been mostly higher since 2008, while a
Republican challenger “should hope the Dow crashes.”



You can read the research paper yourself by clicking
here. At the top of the next page, click the link that
reads, “One-Click Download”.

This article is syndicated by The Socionomist, a publication of the Socionomics Institute, and was originally published under the headline Want to Know Who’s Going to Be President? Ask the Stock Market. The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. Copyright © 2012 Socionomics Institute.

- W

Personal DJIA_Mini Update_2_7_2012

Good afternoon!

Today's DJIA has copmleted pushed the top of the Elliot Wave count that I have been working off of over these past months. In essence, wave 2 of any sequence can not move past the starting point of wave 1. As discussed in previous posts, the top of wave 1 for this current intermediate sequence was $12,876. The market, so far today, and the time is Currently 1:29 PM has pushed and exceeded this limit by a couple of points.

While this is technically a strict violation of the model, I am reminding myself that this analysis is based on mapping trends in collective social mood and that it does not necessarily come down to a specific decimal point. That being said, significant movement above this point will require a complete reconsideration of my wave count.

This is very exciting and can't wait to see how it develops.

-W

MINOR CORRECTION AND UPDATE: 1_4_12

I wanted to make a correction to my last post. The ceiling for my current wave model is $12,876.00, not $12,832.  I mis-read the DJIA chart in my last post as to this fact, and it is obviously important, considering that the DJIA came all the way up to $12,869.95 as of yesterday (Feb, 3rd 2012). $12,832 was the high of the DJIA on the last Friday in April of 2011, before its actual peak that following Monday, May, 2nd 2011, which clocked in at $12,876.00.

I have laid out the remainder of this c wave in the above chart and am holding true to my prediction for  negative movement in the DJIA in the coming weeks.If this wave moves past the peak of $12,876.00 in a significant way, the underlying trend is very strong, and the negative movement I am predicting will possibly occur  within a week after the market finds its top. The movement in this case will be very strong because the correction will have then shown exuberance beyond its natural boundaries. 

All the best,

-W