Based on the developed a(5)-b(3)-c(5) bear market corrective pattern, it seems safe to say that the DJIA is now within its terminal fifth wave of cycle ,primary and, I think, intermediate wave degree. This should end correction wave (C)(see videos and reading list for explanation). As a result I am going to guess that the index is going to fall hard in the coming weeks to begin a new bear market motive wave. My estimate, and in hindsight I should have posted it before, was that the market would top out around 13k. This approximation is found among some other wave charters as well. It topped out today around 27k, and based on the volume, the peak may in fact under shoot the 13k position. If my cycle wave count is correct, this might also qualify as a third wave, as long as 2008-09 was in fact the first wave in a new bear market motive pattern.
This is my first published guess at the wave structure and I would love to have critiques and comments from other charters as well or anyone who has an interest in finance. Prediction = The coming weeks should develop a deep five wave, simple style, motive bear pattern. We shall see.
Please let me know if I am wrong on this, since I would prefer not to make the same mistakes over again unnecessarily.
- W
P.S I have listed below a web site which has an identical count to my own and is really great for charts and video!
http://elliottwavestockmarket.com/2011/04/27/djia-elliott-wave-analysis-%E2%80%93-26th-april-2011/
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