Personal DJIA Update 12_26_11

Hello again,

An updated wave count is attached to this post, [NOTE: all wave numbering is at the minor level, unless otherwise stated] and as you will see, places wave (5) at the market low on 10/4/11, relegating most of this past August and September to an minute a-b-c correction which made up wave 4 and the subsequent 5 wave structure which completed wave (5) at Minor degree and also ➀ of Intermediate degree. The following corrective trend as seen, beginning after 10/4/11, I think that this correction is taking either  5-3-5 pattern or a 3-3-5 corrective pattern as I have mapped out below, with our current position in the beginning of the Minute 3 wave of that last 5 wave structure, the entirety of which began on 11/28/11. I think this correction will terminate at or about $12,733 in the DJIA, and that the peak of the correction will come at or before 1/17/12. It looks like a truncated 5th wave will have to apply in order to finish this last c-wave without overshooting the top of intermediate wave ➀.

At this point, the DJIA should complete intermediate wave ➁ and turn south with what should be a less complex wave structure to begin the intermediate ➂ wave. This will bring the DJIA down to at least $9,000, though my final projection on paper for this next leg down ends at $7,738.


All in all, it looks as though this correction will last, at most until mid January (17th) of this coming year, at which point the market will pick up a strong negative current and dive below the previous market bottom of 10/4/11.

All the best,

-W

Personal DJIA Update 10_28_11: FRACTAL COMPARISON

Good Morning again,

In the spirit of providing examples of self similarity, I am posting two charts. These show intermediate degree waves in the DJIA in the past few months. Compare the top chart with the image placed beneath it of the DJIA back in April of 2007. 

I think the similarity, both in structure and the fact that both the 2011 chart and the 2007 chart represent the first intermediate waves within a larger cycle degree bear market motive wave (2007 proved in fact and 2011 alleged by myself), is quite striking.

The vortex indicators, located under the charts are velocity models based on Austrian inventor Viktor Schauberger's observations of flowing water. The basic idea is that the ebb and flow of the progressive highs and lows of market's price levels provides an indication of both the strength and direction of the market. Comparing the qualities of these charts further demonstrates a correlation between the 2007 DJIA and the present market movement. 

All the best,

W

Personal DJIA Update 10_27_11: Micro Analysis + Socionomic Events

Good Morning!

It seems as though I gave decidedly short shrift to the strength of C-waves in my last analysis. I typically look for a full 61.8% correction to motive waves, though through September and most of October the choppy and stodgy nature of the corrective (a) and (b) waves dissuaded my believe that .618% retracement would occur.


Hindsight is of course 20/20, though in retrospect, I would have called a larger correction had I recognized that wave (5) of intermediate degree had occurred, instead of struggling to see (5) in the triangle corrections that followed.

Presently the (c) wave is, as of 11:10AM ET, trading right around the 61.8% retracement level of the entirety of this  intermediate degree bear market zig-zag. As a result, upon the completion of this (c) wave the market should turn down sharply.

This is both a strong reminder to me not to over complicate things, and a stronger reminder to you that this is purely academic.

All of that being said, I am very excited to see how the market develops in the coming weeks, and will post again when the market fulfills its next intermediate degree movement.  (Which I think will be down)

Since this blog is also suppose to cover socionomics and self similarity in different forms, I will try to post various elements and examples of both in the coming weeks, provided you-tube is not forced to ban copyrighted material. 

That this upswing which is in correlation with the EU decision on debt management, and is not a cause but an effect of the (c) wave upturn in social mood. Note that this follows the progression of the 'occupy' movement, an undeniable showing of negative social mood, which was at its peak during the low point of the $DJIA (b) wave in early October and fading in notoriety after hitting what seems to have been its high water mark, marching to times square on the 10/15.

This also happened to be the end of the (b) and very beginning of the now upward trending (c) wave, which has seen both a significant rise in markets and the comparatively diminished presence of riots and protests which were all very present only a few weeks ago. 

This is all just food for thought and I am not stating any of this as precise fact,however I don't think that the relationship should go at all unnoticed.


All the Best,


W

PERSONAL DJIA PREDICTION 10_17_2011

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THIS IS PURELY A PERSONAL ACADEMIC EXPERIMENT; DO NOT TRADE BASED ON THIS PREDICTION
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Good evening to all,

After the intermediate degree (3) wave ended in early August, I was looking for a more direct (4) and (5) wave than presented itself in the following weeks. I was honestly quite confused as to the process of the correction and am now, after both research an waiting, placing (5) in and around the 19th of this past August. This allows for the following two corrective waves, (a) and (b,) to sub-divide into two respective three wave corrective sequences, which would place (a) ending on 9/20/11 and (b) as ending on 10/4/11. If this sequence is assumed, the robust nature of the (c) wave is well defined within the past few days, starting on 10/5/11. This (c) wave is, unlike both (a) and (b) comprised of a 5-wave pattern, with wave 4 ending on 10/13/11 and wave 5 ending on 10/15/11. This breaks the corrective pattern into a 3-3-5 correction and comports with my identification of this sequence as a "running correction".

Assuming that this recent upwards surge represents the (c) wave correction of a completed 5-wave structure, which began back on 7/7/11, wave ➁ of primary degree, as noted above is nearing if not completed, its formation.

As a result the next wave of both primary and cycle degree are third waves, which are expansive and are often the longest waves in a pattern and will swiftly carry the $DJI into major negative territory, to which I do not believe it will return for some time.

My next prediction is thus for the market to crash hard in the coming weeks.

As was once noted by a friend before the last fall: Lets hope I'm wrong!


All the best,

W

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THIS IS PURELY A PERSONAL ACADEMIC EXPERIMENT; DO NOT TRADE BASED ON THIS PREDICTION

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Personal DJIA Update 10_10_11_Mini update

Good afternoon,

I will update and explain this prediction later today, but based on the current wave count

Personal DJIA Update 10_2_11: Mini Analysis

Although the intermediate 4 wave here did retrace some ground back to around the 38.2% retracement point of the entirety of the wave thus far, it did it in a choppy 3-triangle form. Based on the wave equality principle, I am still looking for the fifth wave to head south for about the same distance as the first wave did back in May, bringing the DJIA to about $10,500. I believe the third wave of early August was an extension as well, which makes this possibility all the more likely.

Essentially, I think that this wave pattern still has yet to complete its motive movement before an intermediate correction will kick in. Also, given the fact that this current sideways movement has a ever so slight downwards zig-zag demeanor, representing strong underlying streangth, my low prediction at $10,500, could possibly even go as low as $10,300,  though my official guess is for $10,500. Also based on the weak corrective movement in the intermediate wave, I think the intermediate correctiont will probably go to 38.2% of the entirety of cycle wave 1, bringing us back to the level we have seen in the past few weeks around $11,400

All the best,

-W

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 8-31-2011

Good morning!

So, my previous post is a lesson in its own claim. After letting the market develop for only a day or so it seems clear that the intermediate count places that top of the (a) wave, in correlation with what would seem to be its proper time for development, peaked at $11,513 on 8/17. The (b) wave of intermediate degree thus came down and ended its movement on 8/22 and what has ensued so far looks like a 5 wave structure, which should retrace 61.8% of the the the recent (3) wave. This count would be invalidated if the DJIA drops lower than $11,300, which I believe would constitute the lowest point of  "iv" within this 5 wave structure.  Though this has changed, I am still holding to the remainder of my prediction from the 28th.



-W

Personal DJIA Prediction 8_28_11

Good afternoon,


The chart is a bit vague for me at this point. Ideally, I would hold off my prediction until the foundation for the upcoming (5) intermediate wave was a bit more clear. It has been noted in the Elliot wave literature that if a wave seems to be indefineable, it is best to wait until the pattern avails itself before proceeding. Since I cannot post as often as I would like my assessment, being made per-maturely, is as follows:

August 10th, 2011 kicked off the intermediate (a) correction to the previous downwards (3). This wave continued to build until 8/17 when a zig-zag wave (b) took the market down to $10,825. What comes next is a building (c) wave which is filling out the [v-iii-v] pattern beginning on 8/11.

I believe that (c) will continue to grow until it reaches a at or slightly below a 100% entrancement of wave (a) at $11,526 . If it finds resistance at $11,350, I will qualify that as the end of (c) and will be looking to the coming drop of wave (5) which will bring the DJIA to $10,576. At this point I will be looking for a robust correction upwards in a 3-wave corrective structure, signaling the end of Primary wave ➀ and the beginning of corrective wave ➁.

Enjoy the action in the coming days!

-W

Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Good Morning,

This is an interesting speech which seems to illustrate the close fundamental connection that human social networks share with the natural world. Enjoy!

Personal DJIA Update and Prediction for 8/11/11

Good Morning,

Yesterday's wave structure did indeed unfold into a single zig-zag or (3-wave) structure, correcting the upwards movement of the (a) wave which occurred on the 9th of this month. Since yesterday's (b) wave terminated just below the beginning of the (a) wave, I believe that this corrective (a-b-c) pattern will be a flat. As a result I am expecting wave (c) of this correction to retrace upwards to at least the .618 level, bringing the DJIA to at least $11,050 as an intermediate (4) wave before beginning one more strong motive leg down in the (5th) wave.

Just to clarify, the (4) wave I had pointed out in an earlier post was dealing specifically with the long drop which occurred last week, which was of minor degree and a subset of the intermediate level (3) wave. The correction we are seeing now, I am also labeling (4), though it is itself, I believe, an intermediate correction.

Also, since it seems as though the wave pattern of this correction has been in a (5-3) structure so far, I am anticipating a five wave structure upwards in the markets today, completing the corrective sequence of (5-3-5).

I am already seeing minute degree (5) wave structure as of 10:19AM this morning.

All the best,

Warren

P.S I have been fairly lax with my time-wave identifications, as to what is intermediate, cycle, primary etc.. I am going to nail this down from here on out so it wont be as confusing to you and I can stop confusing myself as well.

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction 8/10/11

With the opening of the market just a few moments ago it will be interesting to see if there is, in fact, a reaction to yesterdays big leap, which I believe to be an (a) wave of intermediate degree. The (a) wave is beginning the corrective 3-wave pattern for the previous bear market cycle degree downwards (c-3) wave. The large (c-3) wave correction, by the way, was mentioned by Bob Prechter this morning on Bloomberg, and he made an interesting point. He noted that the recent hard fall of the market brings the price level back to where it was before the start of QE2.

I am currently watching what I think to be the (b) wave of what I had previously tagged as being an (a-b-c) correction, which started yesterday. (b) pulled down to $10,925 and then bumped a bit to a little over 11k. Since I believe this is a correction and the previous (a) wave from yesterday broke into five waves, I think today should be a more direct three wave breakdown, meaning that nothat the DJIA has come down, it will correct within today and then fall again, leaving effectively a single zig zag in its form as opposed to three.

Lastly I think it possible that a following C wave, if in fact I am counting correcty, which is always up for grabs and uncertain, will not be found to be as expansive as C waves usually tend to be, and that the overall downward motive force of this market / the pessismism which drives it, will prevent the c wave from really expanding in the same way that it normally would. Essentially, I do not believe, that when the c wave begins, that it will fully retrace to the top of the a correction we saw yesterday.

All the best for now. I am out again before then becomes now, which is soon.

All the Best,

Warren

Personal DJIA update, 8-9-11

So the DJIA in the (5th) wave of intermediate degree, bounced today, I believe, as a start to an (a-b-c)correction. Today's roughly 400 point leap also retraced to 23.6, a common Fibonacci retracemrnt, of the distNce between the start of this larger third wave which is now being corrected. I am currently unsure as to how far this a- wave will go, though my own opinion has me claiming that a (b) wave downturnay occur. Followed by another rally and then another fall.

I think tomorrow will be a downwards (b) wave which will be corrected for a short while before the whole process begins again in the fifth wave.

I will be sure to update more clearly when I see this first part more specifically fulfilled.

All the best,

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P.S I just updated the date on this post from 7/9/11 to 8/9/11, and am reminded why I should not post as I am falling asleep.

Warren

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 8-7-2011

Good evening to all,

After looking again at the charts over the past few days, I am going to call the minor spike in the DJIA, which occurred on Friday, wave (4) in this larger (C-3) downwards trend. I had speculated in my last posting that the fourth wave would not retrace a full .618% in this correction but only up to lower fibonacci retracement points, meeting 50.0% at its max. After finding resistance on 23.6% late on friday, I believe the market poised itself for the coming action this week, which should include the expansive/emotionally panicked (5)wave of this downward trend. Based on this, I believe that the DJIA should continue its motive trend down for roughly another $850 dollars bringing the DJIA to the area of $10,500, before an (A-B-C) wave correction gives new insight to the strength of the trend to come.

As always enjoy the action and we'll see how far these guidelines will continue to apply.

All the best,

Warren

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 8-4-2011

Good Afternoon tot all,

It looks as though my previous prediction calling for a strong downturn in the market following the (B-2) wave correction was accurate and the DJIA, continuing today, as it has in the past few days has taken a very strong downwards motive turn in the (C) wave which is also a (3) wave: (C-3). I would expect this wave, and the time is probably approaching as I am writing this, to bounce off at the 11,600 level to form a small correction. At this moment I believe the current motive wave down , in and around 11,640 is in the fifth wave of this motive line which has been in action for the past few days. It seems pretty clear that this wave has at least one extension if viewed on a (two hour)perspective over the past few days. If (c-3) does in fact push past 11,600 it may very well push all the way down to 11,200 without a major correction, which would techincally validate perfectly my previous prediction, though that remains to be seen and I am not 100% sure that it would happen.

As per the Elliot model, a (4) corrective retracement should be due in the coming weeks though based off of the strength of this motive wave I do not think that it will push up to a .618 retracement of (c-3, but perhaps only up to the .382 or .50 level.

Ok I am posting this before the future becomes the past and people start to say that I do this in hindsight, which I dont.

Enjoy the action!

-Warren

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 7-10-2011

Good Afternoon,

It looks as though my numbers were done either a bit sloppily or a bit hastily last time and my prediction overshot the bottom of the intermediate (A) wave. However the prediction of movement on the whole was correct. The (5-3-5) downwards pattern of that wave which started on 4/25/11 and ended on 6/20/11 has reversed in a (B) wave correction. The next major move should be a strong (C) wave down which will, I believe begin a larger (3) wave down in price.

As a nice confidence booster, I was able to find this recent interview with Robert Prechter and our wave counts seem to be the same.My next low prediction for the DJIA is going to be $11254, though I am not sure as to whether the (C) wave will move down to this level in a vertical or more horizontal fashion.the Either way, enjoy the video and the market action in the coming weeks.


Best to all,

-W

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 6-25-2011

WAVE COUNT
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Given the peak of this past motive sequence at 12,876, it seems as though my first prediction was in fact correct. My update based on the count of "elliotwavestockmarket.com" was a bit optimistic in its consideration of the top of the third wave of intermediate degree.

It appears now as if both the intermediate fifth wave has been reached and that the the wave count has moved into the first element (1 of 3) of correction, the A wave. It is my assessment that this correction will break into a 5-3-5 structure in the intermediate degree and that the A wave will retrace upwards, starting the B wave once it hits a .618 retracement of the C wave of cycle degree. This should occur at or around 11,600. If anything I would expect it to cut a bit deeper before the B wave corrects to around 12,300 at which point the C wave of intermediate degree should pull down on the average very powerfully.

-W

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Prediction: 5-12-2011

I wanted to make a slight amendment to the wave count I listed below. Also I have promise to have some graphs up here soon.



I am holding to my count of cycle and and intermediate wave five as in progress. However, I thought it might be beneficial to relate a [minor], or "weekly" scale as well.

Quick Note: S&P 500 Similar wave structure to DJIA, 5-12-11

Just a quick note on the form of the S&P 500 as being very similar to the DJIA in its wave form and current wave placement.

As Robert Prechter has noted many times, the Elliot Wave pattern applies not just to a single index or the stock market but to any mass social action. This shared subconscious effect, which I had described as "social-mass", and which Prechter, correctly I think, identifies as paleo-mentation-a fancy word behind the action of a herding impulse.

I will write again before the next completion of the minor wave sequence, which I expect to occur sometime later next week. Hopefully in that post I can include some Socionomic indicators as well. Though if you need a hint "The lazy song" has been in the weekly top tens for a while now.

A presto,

-W

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Prediction: 5-12-2011

I wanted to amend my previous post with regard to wave position for the current cycle. I am holding fast in my assessment that the DJIA is currently within its (c) wave of primary and [5] of intermediate degree. However, I wanted to note that the minor cycle, which is one step under intermediate, is currently moving out of its fourth wave, the bottom of which occurred last Thursday, 5-5-11.

In order to complete intermediate wave 5 and thus primary wave (c), the downward trending minor wave 4 will produce a bullish minor wave 5 to complete the motive element of the current minor wave structure.

My prediction for a top of the 5th intermediate wave and the top of wave (c) is still around 13k, specifically 13,074.66. This is still consistent with .618% ratio to the beginning of wave 1 to wave 3 of minor scale, as well as intermediate scale Though I am now more inclined to think that the fifth intermediate wave will be stronger than I expected and be more likely to move slightly above 13k than under it.

-W

NOTE: AS ALWAYS THESE PREDICTIONS ARE PURELY AN OPINION OF MARKET BEHAVIOR MADE BY AN BEGINNING AMATEUR STUDENT. DO NOT THINK THAT THEY ARE CREDIBLE PREDICTIONS.

Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Prediction: 4-28-2011

Based on the developed a(5)-b(3)-c(5) bear market corrective pattern, it seems safe to say that the DJIA is now within its terminal fifth wave of cycle ,primary and, I think, intermediate wave degree. This should end correction wave (C)(see videos and reading list for explanation). As a result I am going to guess that the index is going to fall hard in the coming weeks to begin a new bear market motive wave. My estimate, and in hindsight I should have posted it before, was that the market would top out around 13k. This approximation is found among some other wave charters as well. It topped out today around 27k, and based on the volume, the peak may in fact under shoot the 13k position. If my cycle wave count is correct, this might also qualify as a third wave, as long as 2008-09 was in fact the first wave in a new bear market motive pattern.

This is my first published guess at the wave structure and I would love to have critiques and comments from other charters as well or anyone who has an interest in finance. Prediction = The coming weeks should develop a deep five wave, simple style, motive bear pattern. We shall see.

Please let me know if I am wrong on this, since I would prefer not to make the same mistakes over again unnecessarily.

- W

P.S I have listed below a web site which has an identical count to my own and is really great for charts and video!

http://elliottwavestockmarket.com/2011/04/27/djia-elliott-wave-analysis-%E2%80%93-26th-april-2011/

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