Significant Counter Theory to previous update.

Alternative and more likely count than below has the DJIA moving well past the target zone and up into the 16,000's.

DJIA Forecast: Update 11_5_13

Good evening,

             It has been a little while since my last post. First, the market has, despite some very confusing sideways movement, continued its progress toward my continuing target of ~15893.48 in the DJIA. The following chart lays out the Harmonic Elliot Wave ("HEW") count that I think to be the most accurate. The alternative to this count is that there would be another big wave upward on the minute scale (green).

             There are two key analytical points in the graph below. The first is the placement of wave b (blue) as an extended correction from wave a (blue). The other key analytical point is wave 4 (green), the sub waves of which are labeled as (pink). Although this count for wave 4 (green) assumes a very strong wave b (pink), it does not break any of the rules, adheres surprisingly closely to the harmonic extensions and retracements (my core reason for accepting the count) and gives useful form to the surrounding waves in terms of the harmonic model.

             Thus, like in contract interpretation, the elements of what looks like a complex correction are being read so that they: (1) comport with the general rules of the Harmonic Elliot Wave Model; (2) are not in contradiction to any surrounding counts and; (3) serve to clarify the surrounding market movement in  way which provides useful markers and limit order opportunities going forward.

            While nearly all of the Fibonacci extensions in this model match up, the minute degree (green) wave 5 extensions do not fall directly into lockstep, and straddle the more specific targets created by the larger and shorter fractal degree extension projections. As such, I want to wait on this market, keeping an eye on the RSI and polarized fractal efficiency charts to "super-confirm" a top. Again limit orders in this context can be used effectively, as, at the very least, a wave (b) of the Micro (red) degree will follow the termination of the 5 wave micro move from the past few days.

Best,

W