Harmonic Elliot Wave Update_Index Futures Update

As noted in my last post, I thought there was a potential for one last leg of a bull market before a correction came down on everything. I am restating that perspective today with the following two charts which have highlighted likely resistance areas for the DJIA, really the mini DJIA Futures. It is possible in this count that I have, or am, misplacing the minuette degree third and fourth waves. This remains to be seen. I have re configured the color scheme for this post to make it easier to read and the minute scale will begin with blue extension and black lettering and the scales work normally, as per my key on the main screen, down from that point. If my positioning of the minute degree third and fourth waves are off, it is likely that the market will extend upward into the 1500's as noted on my last post. There is a lesser likelihood that it will continue south in the next few weeks. Confirmation of a southward move will exist if the market (Dow mini future) moves below 14360. If this happens there is a much stronger liklihood that that a strong bear market correction will unsue to at least 14% of the price increase between the bottom in 09' and the current top. The extended hours movement and tomorrow's market should provide a great of information as to which way the market will turn. A southward move tomorrow will not increase the likelihood of a potentially larger and immediate bear market unless it falls under 14597. Even then it is possibly still a correction. Only movement below 14360 will significantly increase the likelihood of a immediate bear market move. That being said, a breach of the lower trend-line is also something which I am watching out for. As always, this is a dynamic process.

-Warren

Critical Update to DJIA Forecast_More Bull Possible

UPDATE - UPDATE- UPDATE:****Based on my application of the Harmonic Elliot Wave Method, first introduced by Ian Copsey as a more fractally efficient alternative to traditional Elliot Wave Analysis, I am compelled to provide a potentially large shift in my forecast. I think it is possible that the top I called was only temporary, and while it was an accurate forecast which saw a strong bear reversal, I am not seeing, over the past few days, the fractal structure I would normally associate with a new motive trend in the market movement . As such, I am compelled to offer my alternative count for the DJIA and the broad based indices generally.

 It is very possible that the bear movement of the past week or so has been in reality wave 4 of Minuette Degree (charted with Pink extensions + black letters for clarity). There is a very strong correlation of Fibonacci extensions between 15838 and 15863. If the market begins to move north, this is the target area for its ultimate completion. The movement of tomorrows market, supported by a shift in market momentum, in conjunction with fundamental economic reports could provide another two legs up, or at least an indication as to the larger movement. It would, admittedly, be a most elegant completion of the larger primary movement.

Mentioning that caused me to go back and measure the relationship between primary wave 5 with a little more time for a bull completion as hypothesized above. Though it is just a rough estimate of the time required, it comes quite close to creating a perfect golden rectangle. See chart (1-4). In order for that to occur, a minuette three wave bull structure would have to complete within roughly the next 22 days.

(1-1)

(1-2)

(1-3)

(1-4)

Here's to the next 22 days, the end of my 2L year in law school, and lots more charting! (after finals of course) Resultantly, I will be going dark regarding my analysis until April 30th, when my last exam has ended. I know this alternative count will keep us all very entertained in the days to come if it does in fact occur.

-W

Updated Harmonic Elliot Wave DJIA Forecast

I have updated my charts given the strong C wave which has unfolded over the past few days. It blew past my original target level and this updated chart shows that we have either reached the peak major resistance point today or will reach it tomorrow in and around 14901. If my count is off it may be possible for the market to run up into the 1500's, but really do think we are nearing the very cusp of the end of this motive movement. In short, I am not adjusting my overall call for a bear market, just identifying the next most likely peak before it occurs. (NB: The color scheme on the daily chart may be off for this post as I have not had a lot of time to get these done.)

Down Jones Industrial Average - Harmonic Elliot Wave Update

Still within the target zone I laid out back on March 17th, the market movement today is I believe indicative of a C wave filling out the completing five wave form (pink). The harmonic model is a precise one and one which thankfully, because of its simplicity, does not keep one guessing when a plain mistake has been made. Such was the case today as I expected the market to already have started its bear market move. The three wave predecessor to today's movement was, however, wave B (light blue) of wave 5. The clear 5 wave harmonic pattern which developed today was undoubtedly motive, and the past few days' market action corrective. I am going back to where all the Fibonacci extensions intersect, and calling a high within 30 points of 14,769. Please see the attached chart.

W

Follow up to Intermediate Top Post for the DJIA

The next element to look for will be the key support level at 14378.91. Once passing this point,  the DJIA should pick up more significant downward momentum. The other broad based indices will follow the same structure as usual.

-W

CRITICAL UPDATE TO DJIA FORECAST_CALLING THE INTERMEDIATE TERM BULL MARKET TOP

After looking at my charts again, I am calling my intermediate wave (A) top at yesterday's high of 14,684.49 in the DJIA. Also, I wanted to note the strong harmonic form of the bearish wave today. Haven't done extensions on it yet, but it looks most elegant. It is important to note that while sub-micro wave c did not reach the peak of the wave target where most of the ratios intersected, it did fall squarely within my predicted range comprised of minor extensions and the remainder fibonacci extensions as they pertained to smaller fractal degrees.

The coming correction could go as low, or possibly lower though this is highly unlikely, as half of the advance from winter of 2009, or as short as 14.4% of the entire move from that time. Either way it's spring time in  the forest of fractal behavioral finance and the bear is waking.

I will be selling long term indice futures at the price level reached early tomorrow morning, as I believe a very minor bull correction will occur overnight before another leg down occurs tomorrow. Over the next week the market will likely retrace back to to today's mid and lows, but it will be a temporary fake out and a strong bear slide will ensue after.

Because this move is a correction, it will likely have lots of overlapping price movement as it progresses. From a long term Dow cycle view, I think it's a hold. Short term trade view is sell. 

Please see these associated charts which span intermediate to below sub-micro fractal degrees:

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