Important Harmonic Elliot Wave Update_DJIA

The following charts depict my forecast for resistance and support for the DJIA. The harmonic wave count in this post is assessed down to the sub-micro level. There is a high liklihood of the minor (blue numerals) wave count ending in and around 14765 as numerous fibonacci extension ratios correllate at this level accross the different fractal scales. At this point I am expecting a deep drop to fill out Intermediate wave [B] (Red). Assuming the count in this post is in fact on target, it is highly likely that the intermediate wave [B] will find its lowest likely support in and around 10659.22. It is however possible for wave [B] to only retrace ~14% of the minor 5-wave Bull move. This is a determination to be made later,however, as the inflection point in intermediate wave [A] has not yet been confirmed.

One should also take into account the more traditional analysis of fundamentals and the prevailing mood of political economy when beginning, to form an idea of just how deep a correction will be. Because I am charting wave [B] as a correction to [A], it is unfortunately likely that it may have a complicated corrective structure, which could limit a typical trading strategy. On the other hand, sideways triangles can provide predictable channels and inflection points, along with increased volatility, which, if entered carefully can be, at least, in my limited experience, profitable. As mentioned, social mood and political-economy tend to take a darker turn during corrective periods. The current situation in Cyprus and the extremely high demand for ammunition in the U.S., along with an increased disposition to positive law on the part of both local, state and the federal government, are also indications of a prevailing pessimism amongst the populace. The likely result is both a more difficult political economy, a darker theme in pop-culture, and a sideways/negative bearish market.

NB: The oscillating indicator below the chart is a visual graph of the markets "polarized fractal efficiency". Thus, the more self similar the market, the further the line travels from the center "0 point" of the graph. The prism like colored graph is the same thing but represented in color intensity. Notice how motive waves have a far greater fractal efficiency than corrections. I have found that this can be helpful in determining otherwise difficult wave counts.

Intermediate (1-1)

Intermediate w/ Thermo-Polar Fractal Efficiency (1-2)

Minute (1-3)

Minuette  (2-1)

Micro / Sub Micro (2-2)

Important Harmonic Elliot Wave_DJIA Update

The following charts are updates and alterations to those I last posted. While I am sticking to my overall directional count, I have had to make some changes. My past chart was a hybrid of the Harmonic and traditional Elliot Wave models. The reason I approached it that way was because I could not work out a pattern which jived with either the traditional or harmonic approaches. With a reality check from this very strong bull market and an algorithm which displays fractal efficiency within the market, I have created this revised wave count and target area. The next likely place of resistance in the DJIA is between 14,7610 and 14,777.

I am now counting the market movement between April and November of 2012 as a flat running correction. This provides the appropriate break between the higher fractal efficiency motive movement ending in in late March of 2012, and beginning again in November of 2012. Thus, where the remainder of the wave count breaks down into a well settled harmonic structure, the 5th minor wave (blue) breaks down into a A-B-C pattern.

The Fibonacci extensions for this count are also convincing, as the Micro, Sub-minuette, Minuette, Minute, and Minor degree extensions all land on common or fairly common extension ratios. I will update these charts with corrections to the smaller fractal colors for ease of labeling and understanding, but as a rough sketch the charts are as follows:

Good Charting,

Warren

Elliot Wave Analysis with Harmonic Interpretations_Update 3_3_13

I am placing the current minor and intermediate wave counts near completion, with the peak and resistance in the DJIA in and around 13,4365. I anticipate this being accurrate within 30 points margin of error on either side. After completing wave (c) pink of Minuette degree, the market should stall and begin a downward trend. I am uncertain at this point if this bear market correction will form Intermediate wave (4) (red) within the first motive wave of a larger Primary [1] wave (black), or if the bull market diagonal pattern will in fact mark the top of Wave [1] (black) and precede a deep primary wave [2] (black) correction. Either way I expect the markets to turn south upon stalling in and around 14,365 points. Please see the attached charts for the counts of fractal degrees Primary down through Subminuette (labeled in red not black in chart 1-5)

1-1

1-2

1-3

1-4

1-5

1-6

1-7

 

 

 

 

 

Good charting,

Warren