Significant Counter Theory to previous update.

Alternative and more likely count than below has the DJIA moving well past the target zone and up into the 16,000's.

DJIA Forecast: Update 11_5_13

Good evening,

             It has been a little while since my last post. First, the market has, despite some very confusing sideways movement, continued its progress toward my continuing target of ~15893.48 in the DJIA. The following chart lays out the Harmonic Elliot Wave ("HEW") count that I think to be the most accurate. The alternative to this count is that there would be another big wave upward on the minute scale (green).

             There are two key analytical points in the graph below. The first is the placement of wave b (blue) as an extended correction from wave a (blue). The other key analytical point is wave 4 (green), the sub waves of which are labeled as (pink). Although this count for wave 4 (green) assumes a very strong wave b (pink), it does not break any of the rules, adheres surprisingly closely to the harmonic extensions and retracements (my core reason for accepting the count) and gives useful form to the surrounding waves in terms of the harmonic model.

             Thus, like in contract interpretation, the elements of what looks like a complex correction are being read so that they: (1) comport with the general rules of the Harmonic Elliot Wave Model; (2) are not in contradiction to any surrounding counts and; (3) serve to clarify the surrounding market movement in  way which provides useful markers and limit order opportunities going forward.

            While nearly all of the Fibonacci extensions in this model match up, the minute degree (green) wave 5 extensions do not fall directly into lockstep, and straddle the more specific targets created by the larger and shorter fractal degree extension projections. As such, I want to wait on this market, keeping an eye on the RSI and polarized fractal efficiency charts to "super-confirm" a top. Again limit orders in this context can be used effectively, as, at the very least, a wave (b) of the Micro (red) degree will follow the termination of the 5 wave micro move from the past few days.

Best,

W

DJIA_Weekly Scale_HEW Forecast

Update to DJIA Market Forecast

I am continuing my medium term prediction that the DJIA will top out  between 15845-75. This is about 13 points lower than I had originally predicted and is due to issues in crafting the chart itself. If the fall which occurs is anything like this past week's wave b of 5 scare, I will start to look for associated minor shifts in politics, global events and pop culture to swing toward a more negative/pessimistic outlook. The following chart represents my analysis of the DJIA. The predicted resistance point is made clear.

-W

Harmonic Elliot Wave_DJIA_6_11_2013

The following chart is my take on the completion of primary wave [A], which is fully devleoped upon completion of its smaller fractal components. The Fibonacci extension ratios for those fractal components,are listed in the purple box, along with their projected price levels.

DJIA Potential 4 wave or b wave update

Update to DJIA Micro level count. [Note: The color coordination scheme I normally employ is not used in this chart]. All analysis occurs on the Micro or sub-micro scale. I have labeled and set a stop loss for the support level demarcated by wave number 4 at 15092 points. The next move should be a bull move and will likely occur in three waves. It is unclear as to whether the correction which occurred this past week is actually a 4 wave, or if it is potentially a b wave from which the final c - wave run to 15888 will start.

Update to Harmonic Elliot Wave Analysis_DJIA

In order to both re-cap and provide a post without the formatting gliches of the last one, I have included the following updated, or rather, more closely annotated, wave charts. The charts range from Cycle degree, down to Micro degree, and I believe display the most likely market outcomes for the remainder of this year. I will of course update these as it becomes necessary to provide sub minute forecasts.

I am forecasting more bull market ahead after a small pull back effectuating wave b (black) of subminuette degree. I have a new top prediction at 15909 in the DJIA for intermediate wave A (Red). The change in my prediction was due to a reassessment of the harmonic extensions comprising wave (iii) (pink) to 94.4% of subminuette wave.  See charts for technical forecast details and harmonic extensions.