Personal DJIA Update 10_28_11: FRACTAL COMPARISON

Good Morning again,

In the spirit of providing examples of self similarity, I am posting two charts. These show intermediate degree waves in the DJIA in the past few months. Compare the top chart with the image placed beneath it of the DJIA back in April of 2007. 

I think the similarity, both in structure and the fact that both the 2011 chart and the 2007 chart represent the first intermediate waves within a larger cycle degree bear market motive wave (2007 proved in fact and 2011 alleged by myself), is quite striking.

The vortex indicators, located under the charts are velocity models based on Austrian inventor Viktor Schauberger's observations of flowing water. The basic idea is that the ebb and flow of the progressive highs and lows of market's price levels provides an indication of both the strength and direction of the market. Comparing the qualities of these charts further demonstrates a correlation between the 2007 DJIA and the present market movement. 

All the best,

W

Personal DJIA Update 10_27_11: Micro Analysis + Socionomic Events

Good Morning!

It seems as though I gave decidedly short shrift to the strength of C-waves in my last analysis. I typically look for a full 61.8% correction to motive waves, though through September and most of October the choppy and stodgy nature of the corrective (a) and (b) waves dissuaded my believe that .618% retracement would occur.


Hindsight is of course 20/20, though in retrospect, I would have called a larger correction had I recognized that wave (5) of intermediate degree had occurred, instead of struggling to see (5) in the triangle corrections that followed.

Presently the (c) wave is, as of 11:10AM ET, trading right around the 61.8% retracement level of the entirety of this  intermediate degree bear market zig-zag. As a result, upon the completion of this (c) wave the market should turn down sharply.

This is both a strong reminder to me not to over complicate things, and a stronger reminder to you that this is purely academic.

All of that being said, I am very excited to see how the market develops in the coming weeks, and will post again when the market fulfills its next intermediate degree movement.  (Which I think will be down)

Since this blog is also suppose to cover socionomics and self similarity in different forms, I will try to post various elements and examples of both in the coming weeks, provided you-tube is not forced to ban copyrighted material. 

That this upswing which is in correlation with the EU decision on debt management, and is not a cause but an effect of the (c) wave upturn in social mood. Note that this follows the progression of the 'occupy' movement, an undeniable showing of negative social mood, which was at its peak during the low point of the $DJIA (b) wave in early October and fading in notoriety after hitting what seems to have been its high water mark, marching to times square on the 10/15.

This also happened to be the end of the (b) and very beginning of the now upward trending (c) wave, which has seen both a significant rise in markets and the comparatively diminished presence of riots and protests which were all very present only a few weeks ago. 

This is all just food for thought and I am not stating any of this as precise fact,however I don't think that the relationship should go at all unnoticed.


All the Best,


W

PERSONAL DJIA PREDICTION 10_17_2011

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THIS IS PURELY A PERSONAL ACADEMIC EXPERIMENT; DO NOT TRADE BASED ON THIS PREDICTION
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Good evening to all,

After the intermediate degree (3) wave ended in early August, I was looking for a more direct (4) and (5) wave than presented itself in the following weeks. I was honestly quite confused as to the process of the correction and am now, after both research an waiting, placing (5) in and around the 19th of this past August. This allows for the following two corrective waves, (a) and (b,) to sub-divide into two respective three wave corrective sequences, which would place (a) ending on 9/20/11 and (b) as ending on 10/4/11. If this sequence is assumed, the robust nature of the (c) wave is well defined within the past few days, starting on 10/5/11. This (c) wave is, unlike both (a) and (b) comprised of a 5-wave pattern, with wave 4 ending on 10/13/11 and wave 5 ending on 10/15/11. This breaks the corrective pattern into a 3-3-5 correction and comports with my identification of this sequence as a "running correction".

Assuming that this recent upwards surge represents the (c) wave correction of a completed 5-wave structure, which began back on 7/7/11, wave ➁ of primary degree, as noted above is nearing if not completed, its formation.

As a result the next wave of both primary and cycle degree are third waves, which are expansive and are often the longest waves in a pattern and will swiftly carry the $DJI into major negative territory, to which I do not believe it will return for some time.

My next prediction is thus for the market to crash hard in the coming weeks.

As was once noted by a friend before the last fall: Lets hope I'm wrong!


All the best,

W

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THIS IS PURELY A PERSONAL ACADEMIC EXPERIMENT; DO NOT TRADE BASED ON THIS PREDICTION

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Personal DJIA Update 10_10_11_Mini update

Good afternoon,

I will update and explain this prediction later today, but based on the current wave count

Personal DJIA Update 10_2_11: Mini Analysis

Although the intermediate 4 wave here did retrace some ground back to around the 38.2% retracement point of the entirety of the wave thus far, it did it in a choppy 3-triangle form. Based on the wave equality principle, I am still looking for the fifth wave to head south for about the same distance as the first wave did back in May, bringing the DJIA to about $10,500. I believe the third wave of early August was an extension as well, which makes this possibility all the more likely.

Essentially, I think that this wave pattern still has yet to complete its motive movement before an intermediate correction will kick in. Also, given the fact that this current sideways movement has a ever so slight downwards zig-zag demeanor, representing strong underlying streangth, my low prediction at $10,500, could possibly even go as low as $10,300,  though my official guess is for $10,500. Also based on the weak corrective movement in the intermediate wave, I think the intermediate correctiont will probably go to 38.2% of the entirety of cycle wave 1, bringing us back to the level we have seen in the past few weeks around $11,400

All the best,

-W