Good morning!
So, my previous post is a lesson in its own claim. After letting the market develop for only a day or so it seems clear that the intermediate count places that top of the (a) wave, in correlation with what would seem to be its proper time for development, peaked at $11,513 on 8/17. The (b) wave of intermediate degree thus came down and ended its movement on 8/22 and what has ensued so far looks like a 5 wave structure, which should retrace 61.8% of the the the recent (3) wave. This count would be invalidated if the DJIA drops lower than $11,300, which I believe would constitute the lowest point of "iv" within this 5 wave structure. Though this has changed, I am still holding to the remainder of my prediction from the 28th.
-W
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Personal DJIA Prediction 8_28_11
Good afternoon,
The chart is a bit vague for me at this point. Ideally, I would hold off my prediction until the foundation for the upcoming (5) intermediate wave was a bit more clear. It has been noted in the Elliot wave literature that if a wave seems to be indefineable, it is best to wait until the pattern avails itself before proceeding. Since I cannot post as often as I would like my assessment, being made per-maturely, is as follows:
August 10th, 2011 kicked off the intermediate (a) correction to the previous downwards (3). This wave continued to build until 8/17 when a zig-zag wave (b) took the market down to $10,825. What comes next is a building (c) wave which is filling out the [v-iii-v] pattern beginning on 8/11.
I believe that (c) will continue to grow until it reaches a at or slightly below a 100% entrancement of wave (a) at $11,526 . If it finds resistance at $11,350, I will qualify that as the end of (c) and will be looking to the coming drop of wave (5) which will bring the DJIA to $10,576. At this point I will be looking for a robust correction upwards in a 3-wave corrective structure, signaling the end of Primary wave ➀ and the beginning of corrective wave ➁.
Enjoy the action in the coming days!
-W
The chart is a bit vague for me at this point. Ideally, I would hold off my prediction until the foundation for the upcoming (5) intermediate wave was a bit more clear. It has been noted in the Elliot wave literature that if a wave seems to be indefineable, it is best to wait until the pattern avails itself before proceeding. Since I cannot post as often as I would like my assessment, being made per-maturely, is as follows:
August 10th, 2011 kicked off the intermediate (a) correction to the previous downwards (3). This wave continued to build until 8/17 when a zig-zag wave (b) took the market down to $10,825. What comes next is a building (c) wave which is filling out the [v-iii-v] pattern beginning on 8/11.
I believe that (c) will continue to grow until it reaches a at or slightly below a 100% entrancement of wave (a) at $11,526 . If it finds resistance at $11,350, I will qualify that as the end of (c) and will be looking to the coming drop of wave (5) which will bring the DJIA to $10,576. At this point I will be looking for a robust correction upwards in a 3-wave corrective structure, signaling the end of Primary wave ➀ and the beginning of corrective wave ➁.
Enjoy the action in the coming days!
-W
Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations
Good Morning,
This is an interesting speech which seems to illustrate the close fundamental connection that human social networks share with the natural world. Enjoy!
This is an interesting speech which seems to illustrate the close fundamental connection that human social networks share with the natural world. Enjoy!
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Personal DJIA Update and Prediction for 8/11/11
Good Morning,
Yesterday's wave structure did indeed unfold into a single zig-zag or (3-wave) structure, correcting the upwards movement of the (a) wave which occurred on the 9th of this month. Since yesterday's (b) wave terminated just below the beginning of the (a) wave, I believe that this corrective (a-b-c) pattern will be a flat. As a result I am expecting wave (c) of this correction to retrace upwards to at least the .618 level, bringing the DJIA to at least $11,050 as an intermediate (4) wave before beginning one more strong motive leg down in the (5th) wave.
Just to clarify, the (4) wave I had pointed out in an earlier post was dealing specifically with the long drop which occurred last week, which was of minor degree and a subset of the intermediate level (3) wave. The correction we are seeing now, I am also labeling (4), though it is itself, I believe, an intermediate correction.
Also, since it seems as though the wave pattern of this correction has been in a (5-3) structure so far, I am anticipating a five wave structure upwards in the markets today, completing the corrective sequence of (5-3-5).
I am already seeing minute degree (5) wave structure as of 10:19AM this morning.
All the best,
Warren
P.S I have been fairly lax with my time-wave identifications, as to what is intermediate, cycle, primary etc.. I am going to nail this down from here on out so it wont be as confusing to you and I can stop confusing myself as well.
Yesterday's wave structure did indeed unfold into a single zig-zag or (3-wave) structure, correcting the upwards movement of the (a) wave which occurred on the 9th of this month. Since yesterday's (b) wave terminated just below the beginning of the (a) wave, I believe that this corrective (a-b-c) pattern will be a flat. As a result I am expecting wave (c) of this correction to retrace upwards to at least the .618 level, bringing the DJIA to at least $11,050 as an intermediate (4) wave before beginning one more strong motive leg down in the (5th) wave.
Just to clarify, the (4) wave I had pointed out in an earlier post was dealing specifically with the long drop which occurred last week, which was of minor degree and a subset of the intermediate level (3) wave. The correction we are seeing now, I am also labeling (4), though it is itself, I believe, an intermediate correction.
Also, since it seems as though the wave pattern of this correction has been in a (5-3) structure so far, I am anticipating a five wave structure upwards in the markets today, completing the corrective sequence of (5-3-5).
I am already seeing minute degree (5) wave structure as of 10:19AM this morning.
All the best,
Warren
P.S I have been fairly lax with my time-wave identifications, as to what is intermediate, cycle, primary etc.. I am going to nail this down from here on out so it wont be as confusing to you and I can stop confusing myself as well.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction 8/10/11
With the opening of the market just a few moments ago it will be interesting to see if there is, in fact, a reaction to yesterdays big leap, which I believe to be an (a) wave of intermediate degree. The (a) wave is beginning the corrective 3-wave pattern for the previous bear market cycle degree downwards (c-3) wave. The large (c-3) wave correction, by the way, was mentioned by Bob Prechter this morning on Bloomberg, and he made an interesting point. He noted that the recent hard fall of the market brings the price level back to where it was before the start of QE2.
I am currently watching what I think to be the (b) wave of what I had previously tagged as being an (a-b-c) correction, which started yesterday. (b) pulled down to $10,925 and then bumped a bit to a little over 11k. Since I believe this is a correction and the previous (a) wave from yesterday broke into five waves, I think today should be a more direct three wave breakdown, meaning that nothat the DJIA has come down, it will correct within today and then fall again, leaving effectively a single zig zag in its form as opposed to three.
Lastly I think it possible that a following C wave, if in fact I am counting correcty, which is always up for grabs and uncertain, will not be found to be as expansive as C waves usually tend to be, and that the overall downward motive force of this market / the pessismism which drives it, will prevent the c wave from really expanding in the same way that it normally would. Essentially, I do not believe, that when the c wave begins, that it will fully retrace to the top of the a correction we saw yesterday.
All the best for now. I am out again before then becomes now, which is soon.
All the Best,
Warren
I am currently watching what I think to be the (b) wave of what I had previously tagged as being an (a-b-c) correction, which started yesterday. (b) pulled down to $10,925 and then bumped a bit to a little over 11k. Since I believe this is a correction and the previous (a) wave from yesterday broke into five waves, I think today should be a more direct three wave breakdown, meaning that nothat the DJIA has come down, it will correct within today and then fall again, leaving effectively a single zig zag in its form as opposed to three.
Lastly I think it possible that a following C wave, if in fact I am counting correcty, which is always up for grabs and uncertain, will not be found to be as expansive as C waves usually tend to be, and that the overall downward motive force of this market / the pessismism which drives it, will prevent the c wave from really expanding in the same way that it normally would. Essentially, I do not believe, that when the c wave begins, that it will fully retrace to the top of the a correction we saw yesterday.
All the best for now. I am out again before then becomes now, which is soon.
All the Best,
Warren
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Personal DJIA update, 8-9-11
So the DJIA in the (5th) wave of intermediate degree, bounced today, I believe, as a start to an (a-b-c)correction. Today's roughly 400 point leap also retraced to 23.6, a common Fibonacci retracemrnt, of the distNce between the start of this larger third wave which is now being corrected. I am currently unsure as to how far this a- wave will go, though my own opinion has me claiming that a (b) wave downturnay occur. Followed by another rally and then another fall.
I think tomorrow will be a downwards (b) wave which will be corrected for a short while before the whole process begins again in the fifth wave.
I will be sure to update more clearly when I see this first part more specifically fulfilled.
All the best,
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
P.S I just updated the date on this post from 7/9/11 to 8/9/11, and am reminded why I should not post as I am falling asleep.
Warren
I think tomorrow will be a downwards (b) wave which will be corrected for a short while before the whole process begins again in the fifth wave.
I will be sure to update more clearly when I see this first part more specifically fulfilled.
All the best,
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
P.S I just updated the date on this post from 7/9/11 to 8/9/11, and am reminded why I should not post as I am falling asleep.
Warren
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 8-7-2011
Good evening to all,
After looking again at the charts over the past few days, I am going to call the minor spike in the DJIA, which occurred on Friday, wave (4) in this larger (C-3) downwards trend. I had speculated in my last posting that the fourth wave would not retrace a full .618% in this correction but only up to lower fibonacci retracement points, meeting 50.0% at its max. After finding resistance on 23.6% late on friday, I believe the market poised itself for the coming action this week, which should include the expansive/emotionally panicked (5)wave of this downward trend. Based on this, I believe that the DJIA should continue its motive trend down for roughly another $850 dollars bringing the DJIA to the area of $10,500, before an (A-B-C) wave correction gives new insight to the strength of the trend to come.
As always enjoy the action and we'll see how far these guidelines will continue to apply.
All the best,
Warren
After looking again at the charts over the past few days, I am going to call the minor spike in the DJIA, which occurred on Friday, wave (4) in this larger (C-3) downwards trend. I had speculated in my last posting that the fourth wave would not retrace a full .618% in this correction but only up to lower fibonacci retracement points, meeting 50.0% at its max. After finding resistance on 23.6% late on friday, I believe the market poised itself for the coming action this week, which should include the expansive/emotionally panicked (5)wave of this downward trend. Based on this, I believe that the DJIA should continue its motive trend down for roughly another $850 dollars bringing the DJIA to the area of $10,500, before an (A-B-C) wave correction gives new insight to the strength of the trend to come.
As always enjoy the action and we'll see how far these guidelines will continue to apply.
All the best,
Warren
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Personal DJIA Elliot Wave Update and Prediction: 8-4-2011
Good Afternoon tot all,
It looks as though my previous prediction calling for a strong downturn in the market following the (B-2) wave correction was accurate and the DJIA, continuing today, as it has in the past few days has taken a very strong downwards motive turn in the (C) wave which is also a (3) wave: (C-3). I would expect this wave, and the time is probably approaching as I am writing this, to bounce off at the 11,600 level to form a small correction. At this moment I believe the current motive wave down , in and around 11,640 is in the fifth wave of this motive line which has been in action for the past few days. It seems pretty clear that this wave has at least one extension if viewed on a (two hour)perspective over the past few days. If (c-3) does in fact push past 11,600 it may very well push all the way down to 11,200 without a major correction, which would techincally validate perfectly my previous prediction, though that remains to be seen and I am not 100% sure that it would happen.
As per the Elliot model, a (4) corrective retracement should be due in the coming weeks though based off of the strength of this motive wave I do not think that it will push up to a .618 retracement of (c-3, but perhaps only up to the .382 or .50 level.
Ok I am posting this before the future becomes the past and people start to say that I do this in hindsight, which I dont.
Enjoy the action!
-Warren
It looks as though my previous prediction calling for a strong downturn in the market following the (B-2) wave correction was accurate and the DJIA, continuing today, as it has in the past few days has taken a very strong downwards motive turn in the (C) wave which is also a (3) wave: (C-3). I would expect this wave, and the time is probably approaching as I am writing this, to bounce off at the 11,600 level to form a small correction. At this moment I believe the current motive wave down , in and around 11,640 is in the fifth wave of this motive line which has been in action for the past few days. It seems pretty clear that this wave has at least one extension if viewed on a (two hour)perspective over the past few days. If (c-3) does in fact push past 11,600 it may very well push all the way down to 11,200 without a major correction, which would techincally validate perfectly my previous prediction, though that remains to be seen and I am not 100% sure that it would happen.
As per the Elliot model, a (4) corrective retracement should be due in the coming weeks though based off of the strength of this motive wave I do not think that it will push up to a .618 retracement of (c-3, but perhaps only up to the .382 or .50 level.
Ok I am posting this before the future becomes the past and people start to say that I do this in hindsight, which I dont.
Enjoy the action!
-Warren
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